Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 11.389703 14.003173 16.924123 20.408242 24.427626 28.895672 34.213776
2025-12-07 7.404195 10.638977 14.681220 20.004670 26.724828 34.817752 45.182487
2025-12-14 5.445224 8.882687 13.572935 20.224715 29.179666 40.572302 55.887534
2025-12-21 3.840850 7.100021 11.937185 19.279116 29.740795 43.690134 63.215078
2025-12-28 3.079417 6.334285 11.514819 19.816872 32.179408 49.258831 73.890205
2026-01-04 2.451615 5.607645 10.982673 20.046198 34.096168 54.132120 83.795774
2026-01-11 1.999302 5.063089 10.621959 20.438231 36.206189 59.319886 94.317578
2026-01-18 1.671246 4.663628 10.422256 21.024785 38.600633 64.989711 105.725942
2026-01-25 1.293711 4.046627 9.714216 20.645713 39.399857 68.291831 113.813851
2026-02-01 1.059372 3.676978 9.398386 20.885117 41.171744 73.100662 124.261495
2026-02-08 0.814628 3.194440 8.763340 20.452079 41.756538 76.064996 132.027923
2026-02-15 0.602072 2.709105 8.020607 19.706109 41.711748 77.988217 138.235975
2026-02-22 0.499234 2.521815 7.938830 20.308635 44.201148 84.300253 151.811844
2026-03-01 0.366242 2.167786 7.395395 19.918218 44.892426 87.752255 161.136341
2026-03-08 0.287303 1.960555 7.163664 20.138244 46.702581 93.123316 173.685828
2026-03-15 0.191381 1.606108 6.449055 19.195857 46.214132 94.551452 179.912668
2026-03-22 0.155114 1.498828 6.395625 19.731811 48.613327 101.033294 194.586870
2026-03-29 0.119727 1.363174 6.222826 19.960370 50.406267 106.518681 207.785964
2026-04-05 0.094290 1.260111 6.124393 20.351097 52.543141 112.689065 222.312976
2026-04-12 0.076318 1.187201 6.106284 20.935708 55.109433 119.720909 238.494581
2026-04-19 0.051998 1.025295 5.732319 20.557890 55.622204 123.037821 248.459259
2026-04-26 0.038936 0.937825 5.601043 20.796501 57.456059 128.837528 262.836929
2026-05-03 0.025070 0.803949 5.243027 20.364899 57.789939 131.847148 272.460225